Bitcoin (BTC) remains weak even as Bakkt’s scheduled launch of Bitcoin Futures nears. If it continues to remain below the symmetrical triangle for the next 24 hours, it might risk a sharp decline over the weekend. The symmetrical triangle seen on the daily chart for BTC/USD has already been invalidated. The price is now expected to decline towards the bottom of the descending triangle. If that level fails to hold, the price will decline all the way down to the 200 day EMA. NVT indicator on the daily chart is close to where it was just before the price broke market structure in November, 2018. The price is very likely to resume the long awaited downtrend from here. The entire move to the yearly high was an extended version of the 2014 part of the last cycle.
The market is now at a very similar point as it was in 2017 just before it all came crashing down. The bullish euphoria was at its highest as it is at the moment. We have not seen the market inflict any pain on the bulls so far. Even traders that made bade calls and bought around $10,000 still had the opportunity to profit. In other words, it has been far too easy to make money in this market as a bull. The bears on the other hand experienced a lot of pain when the price pierced through $6,000 and ended up making a new yearly high at $13,906. This wiped out most of the aggressive bears that were hoping the price would decline straight below $3,000 without seeing some upside first. That being said, the manner in which the price surged after December, 2018 was nothing short of sheer manipulation.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has now declined to a decision point. This week’s close is going to be very important to ascertain which way the dominance is likely to go from here. However, one thing is clear and that is the divide between the bulls and bears is now the widest. Either Bitcoin dominance goes up from here and the bear trend resumes or it declines below a key support and a new bullish cycle begins. So there is no more swinging back and forth on decisions because traders have to make their mind here once and for all. If you are expecting this to be the end of the bear market then you are thinking that Bitcoin dominance will break support despite the current oversold conditions.
The reason you would expect that to happen is because during a bullish cycle altcoins rally harder than Bitcoin (BTC) which means that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) will decline as a result. However, if you are hoping for that to happen it would mean that you think that the ongoing market cycle is going to be shorter, not longer than the previous cycle which I think is fundamentally flawed. As more money enters the market, it should take longer for that money to get out of the market. Either way, we are close to a decision point and this month is going to determine the course of Bitcoin (BTC) for the next several months and most likely till Bitcoin (BTC)’s upcoming halving.